Across the markets we work in, the queue to connect new generation and demand to the grid has become the single largest brake on decarbonisation. Projects are ready; networks are not.
This outlook draws on our work with distribution and transmission operators over the past three years. It is written for executives deciding how much to invest ahead of confirmed demand, and how to defend that choice.
Three shifts we expect to define the decade
- Reinforcement and renewal will increasingly be planned and delivered as one programme.
- Flexibility contracts will move from pilots to a planned share of capacity.
- Regulators will expect investment cases built on transparent, scenario-based risk models.
None of these shifts is new on its own. What is new is the pace at which they now need to happen together, and the volume of work networks must deliver through constrained supply chains.
The operators that move first are not the ones with the biggest budgets — they are the ones with the clearest view of risk.
Where to start
We recommend operators begin with a single risk model that combines asset condition, load growth and criticality. It is the foundation for every other decision in this outlook, and it is often achievable within a quarter.
